Here’s my attempt at an unbiased look at the upcoming NBA season, using my 3Score version of time-weighed three-year adjusted plus-minus numbers—based on the one-year and two-year numbers posted by Aaron Barzilai at his website BasketballValue.com—as a predictive element for the 2010-11 campaign.
Adjustments may have been made for players on the rise (24 and younger) or on the decline (32 and older), but these exceptions all had to meet certain criteria for the pre-determined increases or decreases. When adjusted plus-minus numbers were not available for limited role players, I used raw +/- numbers from Roland Beech’s 82Games.com, with most of these players being marginalized in the deep bench section of each team.
For rookies, I used various college/overseas plus-minus tools and advanced statistics metrics, along with John Hollinger’s Draft Rater, to properly place collegiate and foreign rookies in pre-determined slots where past rookies graded out in APM.
For team playing-time assessments, I started out with a three-year average as a base score for everyone, trying to keep that number fixed for most top rotation players, while making adjustments as needed for second-stringers and such. Adjustments were also made for players on the rise, players on the decline and players who would have ...
