i'd been wondering for awhile how adjusted plus-minus team projections would stack up with expert opinions ... so before the season started, i put together an extensive apm team projection preview based primarily on three-year apm scores and playing-time percentages ... and now that we're almost a month into 2010-11, i am now here to compare how my apm predictions are faring against espn's 93 best basketball minds, espn's foremost projection expert john hollinger, along with kevin pelton's schoene predictions.
and sad to say--even though the season is far from over--hollinger and espn's consensus opinions both are beating my apm numbers ... i determined this by using my give-or-take-5 grading system on pace wins versus projected wins to see who is projecting best ... and that analysis gave me the following tallies (like golf, low score wins): hollinger, 69; espn, 82; apm, 97; schoene, 131.
next question is, how did i determine these following pace-win totals? well, by combining actual 2010-11 records (so far) with each team's simple rating system score ... with that, i was able to put together a master key to serve as an unbiased source to grade our projections against, using these current season numbers as pace win ...
