it’s finally here … i’ve been tinkering with this creation all year long and have finally come up with the perfect formula to evaluate nba players, which not only gives a one-number figure for teammate ratings utilizing efficiency (t.r.u.e.), but also another figure for player value in a given season (true wins added).

it’s like the good folks at reese’s peanut butter cups … they didn’t invent chocolate; they didn’t create peanut butter … but my combining the two, they concocted the most delicious candy ever.

i think i’ve done the same by combining aaron barzilai’s adjusted plus-minus numbers (pioneered by the great dan rosenbaum in 2004) with john hollinger’s player efficiency ratings.

i give one-third value to 1-year adjusted plus-minus numbers … one-third value to 2-year adjusted plus-minus numbers … and one-third value to player efficiency ratings (which i subtract 15.0 from so that i put it on an equator with the aforementioned adjusted plus-minus stats) … i then divide that total by three and come up with teammate ratings utilizing efficiency aka t.r.u.e.

for true wins added, i then take the aforementioned t.r.u.e. figure, subtract a replacement player value (-4.5) from that, multiply the subtotal by the number of minutes played and divide that figure by 2010 (which was 67 multiplied by 30–67 because that’s the number that worked for hollinger’s p.e.r. value added system and 30 since, as hollinger says, it takes about 30 points over the course of an 82-game season to add another win).

i truly believe t.r.u.e. is the best ratings system that we have in the game today … kinda sounded like hubie brown there, huh?

again … bigs ups to barzilai & hollinger for changing the game!!

– darryl howerton

… photo by danny clinch